Forecast

The median price forecast indicates positive annual growth for July, August, and September
in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to change by
8.6% in July, 9.8% in August, and 10.3% in September. For the Chicago PMSA, the
comparable figures are 9.5% in July, 11.8% in August, and 12.7% in September. (Reference:
Forecast for July 2022 report table)
• As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the SHDRE HPI forecasts a
positive growth trend for both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA5
. In Illinois, the SHDRE HPI
(Jan 2008=1) is forecast to change by 11.8% in July, 9.5% in August, and 8.6% in September.
The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 9.6% in July, 9.6% in August, and 10.1%
in September. SHDRE HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs
comparable “baskets” of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index)
• The sales forecast for July, August, and September suggests a decrease both on a yearly basis
and a monthly basis for both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. Annually for Illinois, the threemonth average forecasts point to a decrease in the range of -16.0% to -21.7%; the comparative
figures for the Chicago PMSA are a decrease in the range of -6.2% to -8.4%. On a monthly
basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease in the range of -7.7% to -10.4%
for Illinois and decrease in the range of -3.5% to -4.8% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference:
Forecast for July 2022 report table)
• The pending home sales index6 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This June,
the number of homes put under contract was less than last year in Illinois and Chicago PMSA.
The pending home sales index is 119.8 (2019=100) in Illinois, down -13.9% from a year ago.
In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 117.0 down -17.4% from a year ago.
(Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure)
• In June 2022, 1,175 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (up 302.0%
and down -18.0%, respectively, from a year and a month ago). 501 foreclosures were
completed (up 221.0% and down -2.0% respectively from a year and a month ago) 7
. As of
June 2022, there are 7,372 homes at some stage of foreclosure — the foreclosure inventory.
The monthly average net flows of foreclosures (foreclosure inflows – outflows) were 590.5 in
the past 6 months, 264.50 in the last 12 months, and 200 in the previous 24 months. (Reference:
Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Inflows and Outflows, and Inventory figures)

• information from Stuart Handler