Market Analysis After 25-Months of Tight Inventory by Nicole Casperson

On Thursday, Redfin released a housing market report—providing insights based on data reported for October 2017.

The report breaks down its information into four main categories including; competition, home prices, sales, and inventory. Additionally, Redfin reported market updates based on the 74 metro areas it tracks.

Nationally, the number of homes for sale decreased 12.2 percent, representing the sharpest year-over-year decline in inventory since 2013, the report noted. Meanwhile, home prices rose 7.1 percent compared to October 2016.

“Despite strong buyer demand, sales are sputtering due to low inventory,” said Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “The last time we saw a substantial increase in the number of homes for sale, Donald Trump was a candidate in a Republican field of 11.”

There was about a three-month supply of homes in October nationally. The last time the market saw more than six months of supply in any month was January 2012.

The typical home spent 44 days on the market, five days fewer than October 2016. Last month, average sale-to-list price ratio was 98.2 percent, up from 97.9 percent a year earlier, and 22.5 percent of homes sold above their list price, compared with 21.5 percent in October 2016.

As for metro areas, the most competitive market in October was San Francisco—with 78.6 percent of homes sold above listing price. While data found that Seattle was the fastest market with the typical home spending only 10 days on the market, which is down from 13 days last year.

Nine metro areas reported double-digit increases in the median sale price with San Jose, California leading the way. This marked the highest home price growth rising 19.2 percent since last year to $1,049,000. Seattle had the second highest growth at 16.5 percent.

Additionally, six metros saw price declines in October, with prices falling the most in Columbia, South Carolina by 5.4 percent to $139,000.

Out of the 74 metros, seven experienced double-digit increases in sales growth, with Camden, New Jersey ranking the nation’s highest year-over-year sales growth at 31 percent. While Baton Rouge, Louisiana experienced a decrease by 20.3 percent— the largest decline in sales since last year.

San Jose also had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 51.6 percent since October of last year.

There were eight metro areas that saw significant gains were markets in the South and Midwest, the report noted.

Those areas included, Raleigh, North Carolina had the largest increase in the number of homes for sale, rising 16.1 percent year-over-year, followed by Baton Rouge, Louisiana up 12.9 percent, Austin, Texas up 8.8 percent, New Orleans up 7.5 percent, St. Louis up 4.8 percent, Dallas up 4.1 percent, Nashville, Tennessee up 2.7 percent, and Allentown, Pennsylvania up 2.5 percent

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